Trump at 16 Months: Foreign Policy Scorecard — Deals, Disputes, and Strategic Shifts

Sixteen months into his second term, President Donald Trump has assembled a foreign policy record that defies easy categorization. Defined by transactional instincts, unilateral gestures, and a persistent skepticism of multilateral institutions, the administration has racked up both genuine achievements and significant setbacks on the international stage. A clear-eyed accounting of both is essential to understanding where U.S. foreign policy now stands — and where it is headed.

Trade: Tariffs as Leverage, With Mixed Results

The administration's most sweeping foreign policy instrument has been tariffs. Universal baseline tariffs of ten percent on virtually all imports, combined with targeted duties as high as 145 percent on Chinese goods, have fundamentally altered the landscape of global trade. The stated objective — reshoring manufacturing and reducing bilateral trade deficits — has produced measurable but uneven results. Several major multinational corporations have announced new U.S. investment commitments, citing the changed cost calculus. At the same time, consumer prices in tariff-exposed categories have risen, and retaliatory measures from trading partners have squeezed American agricultural exporters.

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A 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, announced in April following market turbulence, bought time for negotiations with roughly two dozen countries. However, as of mid-May 2026, only preliminary framework agreements have been reached with the United Kingdom and Vietnam. Talks with the European Union remain stalled over services trade and digital regulation, while negotiations with Japan have centered on automotive sector access. Analysts at the Peterson Institute estimate that the net effect of current tariff policy is a modest reduction in the trade deficit but a more significant drag on real GDP growth.

China: Competition Without Guardrails

The defining foreign policy relationship of the era remains U.S.-China competition, and the Trump administration has pursued it with an intensity that, in some respects, exceeds even the confrontational posture of the first term. Export controls on advanced semiconductors have been tightened repeatedly, with new entity list additions announced in February and April. The administration has also moved aggressively to limit Chinese investment in U.S. technology, critical minerals, and infrastructure through expanded CFIUS review procedures.

The Taiwan Strait remains a focal point. The administration has approved two major arms sales to Taiwan since January 2025, continued Freedom of Navigation Operations in the South China Sea, and maintained robust military-to-military engagements with regional partners. At the same time, a high-level diplomatic channel with Beijing — established to manage crisis communications — has been used sparingly, raising concerns among some national security professionals that the relationship lacks the crisis-management infrastructure needed during periods of heightened tension.

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Alliance Management: NATO and Beyond

The administration's relationship with NATO allies has remained a source of friction and selective cooperation. Pressure on European members to reach the two-percent GDP defense spending benchmark has intensified, with the President publicly floating the idea of a three-percent target. Several major European allies — including Germany, Poland, and the Baltic states — have either reached or committed to reaching the two-percent threshold, representing a genuine achievement in burden-sharing that even critics acknowledge. However, the manner of the pressure — often delivered via public statements that question U.S. commitment to collective defense — has fueled strategic anxiety in European capitals and accelerated discussions about autonomous European defense capacity.

In Asia, the alliance framework has remained on firmer footing. The U.S.-Japan alliance has been deepened by revised defense guidelines, new integrated command structures, and expanded joint training. The AUKUS partnership with Australia and the United Kingdom has moved into an advanced implementation phase, with nuclear-powered submarine technology transfer on track. The administration has also elevated the Quad — comprising the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia — to a more substantive security forum, with a joint maritime surveillance initiative announced in March. For context on NATO's eastern posture, see our ongoing coverage: NATO weighs expanded eastern defense posture and NATO bolsters Eastern Europe presence.

Russia and the Ukraine War: The Unresolved Test

The administration's handling of the Russia-Ukraine war represents perhaps its most significant and unresolved foreign policy challenge. Early in the term, there was intense diplomatic activity aimed at brokering a ceasefire — a goal that the President had promised to achieve within his first 100 days. Those efforts failed to produce a durable agreement, as Russia rejected terms that preserved Ukraine's territorial integrity while Ukraine resisted concessions that would formalize Russian control over occupied territory.

U.S. military assistance to Ukraine has continued, though with modifications — certain long-range strike systems have been restricted and aid has been reframed as conditional and finite rather than open-ended. The framing has complicated Ukraine's battlefield planning while also signaling to Russia that American support has limits. European allies have stepped into some of the gap, with France, the UK, and Germany announcing record defense packages in the first quarter of 2026. The situation remains fluid, with no negotiated settlement in sight.

Middle East: Abraham Accords 2.0 and Gaza's Shadow

The administration entered office with ambitious goals for expanding normalization agreements in the Middle East, hoping to build on the Abraham Accords of the first term by bringing Saudi Arabia into a formal peace framework with Israel. Progress has been made in terms of security cooperation and intelligence sharing, but a formal normalization deal remains elusive, hampered in significant part by the ongoing conflict in Gaza. The humanitarian situation in Gaza has drawn sharp international criticism and complicated U.S. diplomatic positioning across the Arab world.

A temporary ceasefire negotiated through Qatari mediation held for several weeks in early 2026 before breaking down. Renewed hostilities and the continued displacement of Gaza's civilian population have strained relations with Gulf partners and limited the administration's room for maneuver on the broader normalization agenda. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff has maintained contact with all parties, but substantive progress has remained elusive.

The Overall Assessment

Sixteen months in, the Trump foreign policy record is one of genuine disruption — in both the constructive and costly senses of that word. Trade relationships have been fundamentally restructured, with consequences that will take years to fully assess. Alliance relationships have been strained but not broken, and in Asia have in several respects been strengthened. The central challenges of the era — managing China's rise, ending the war in Ukraine, stabilizing the Middle East — remain unresolved. The administration's transactional approach has achieved specific, bounded objectives while leaving broader strategic architectures uncertain. How history ultimately judges this record will depend heavily on outcomes that remain, at 16 months, genuinely open.